---
title: "plots"
author: "jennifer victoria scurrell"
date: "5/27/2017"
output:
  pdf_document: default
  html_document: default
---

```{r setup, include=FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = TRUE)
```

```{r}
setwd("~/Desktop/BLOG")

library(haven)

Sicherheit2017_nur2017 <- read_sav("~/Desktop/BLOG/data/Sicherheit2017_nur2017.sav")

sicherheit <- Sicherheit2017_nur2017 

#summary(sicherheit)

library(ggplot2)
library(scales)
library(Zelig)
library(nnet)
library(MASS)
library(RCurl)
library(reshape2)
library(gridExtra)
library(dplyr)
library(stargazer)

#set_vertrauen17
vertrauen17 <- c("jahr","st_q01.06", "st_q01.18", "st_q01.19", "st_q08", "s3", "age_qr7", "bildung3", "reg", "st_q01.05", "st_q01.01", "st_q01.02", "st_q01.03", "st_q01.04", "st_q01.07", "st_q01.16")
set_vertrauen17<- sicherheit[vertrauen17]
set_vertrauen17_c <- na.omit(set_vertrauen17)

#socialmedia
m1 <- zelig(st_q01.19 ~ st_q08 + I(st_q08^2) + st_q01.01 + st_q01.02 + st_q01.03 + st_q01.04 + st_q01.05 + st_q01.06 + st_q01.07 + st_q01.16 + st_q01.18 + s3 + age_qr7 + bildung3 + reg, 
            model = "ls", data = set_vertrauen17_c, cite = FALSE)

summary(m1)

mpred1 <- setx(m1, st_q08=c(0:10))

mpred11 <- sim(m1, x = mpred1)

summary(mpred11)

plot(mpred11)


sims.full1 <- set_vertrauen17_c %>% 
  zelig(st_q01.19 ~ st_q08 + I(st_q08^2) + st_q01.01 + st_q01.02 + st_q01.03 + st_q01.04 + st_q01.05 + st_q01.06 + st_q01.07 + st_q01.16 + st_q01.18 + s3 + age_qr7 + bildung3 + reg, 
        model = "ls", data =., cite = FALSE) %>%
  setx(st_q08 = c(0:10))  %>%
  sim() %>%
  zelig_qi_to_df()

head(sims.full1)

sims.slimmed1 <- qi_slimmer(sims.full1)

ggplot(sims.slimmed1, aes(st_q08, qi_ci_median)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = qi_ci_min, ymax = qi_ci_max), alpha = 0.3) +
  geom_line() + 
  ylab('') +
  theme_bw() +
  labs(title = "Social Media", x="Politische Einstellung", y="Expected Trust")



#internet  
m2 <- zelig(st_q01.18 ~ st_q08 + I(st_q08^2) + st_q01.01 + st_q01.02 + st_q01.03 + st_q01.04 + st_q01.05 + st_q01.06 + st_q01.07 + st_q01.16 + st_q01.19 + s3 + age_qr7 + bildung3 + reg  , 
              model = "ls", data = set_vertrauen17_c, cite = FALSE)
  
summary(m2)
  
mpred2 <- setx(m2, st_q08=c(0:10))
  
mpred22 <- sim(m2, x = mpred2)
  
summary(mpred22)
  
plot(mpred22)
  
  
sims.full2 <- set_vertrauen17_c %>% 
  zelig(st_q01.18 ~ st_q08 + I(st_q08^2) + st_q01.01 + st_q01.02 + st_q01.03 + st_q01.04 + st_q01.05 +     st_q01.06 + st_q01.07 + st_q01.16 + st_q01.19 + s3 + age_qr7 + bildung3 + reg, 
          model = "ls", data =., cite = FALSE) %>%
  setx(st_q08 = c(0:10)) %>%
  sim() %>%
  zelig_qi_to_df()
  
head(sims.full2)
  
sims.slimmed2 <- qi_slimmer(sims.full2)
  
ggplot(sims.slimmed2, aes(st_q08, qi_ci_median)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = qi_ci_min, ymax = qi_ci_max), alpha = 0.3) +
  geom_line() + 
  ylab('Expected trust') +
  theme_bw() +
  labs(title = "Internet", x="Politische Einstellung", y="Expected Trust")
  
  
  
#medien generell
m3 <- zelig(st_q01.06 ~ st_q08 + I(st_q08^2) + st_q01.01 + st_q01.02 + st_q01.03 + st_q01.04 + st_q01.05 + st_q01.19 + st_q01.07 + st_q01.16 + st_q01.18 + s3 + age_qr7 + bildung3 + reg  , 
              model = "ls", data = set_vertrauen17_c, cite = FALSE)
  
summary(m3)
  
mpred3 <- setx(m3, st_q08=c(0:10))
  
mpred33 <- sim(m3, x = mpred3)
  
summary(mpred33)
  
plot(mpred33)
  
  
sims.full3 <- set_vertrauen17_c %>% 
  zelig(st_q01.06 ~ st_q08 + I(st_q08^2) + st_q01.01 + st_q01.02 + st_q01.03 + st_q01.04 + st_q01.05 +     st_q01.19 + st_q01.07 + st_q01.16 + st_q01.18 + s3 + age_qr7 + bildung3 + reg, 
          model = "ls", data =., cite = FALSE) %>%
  setx(st_q08 = c(0:10)) %>%
  sim() %>%
  zelig_qi_to_df()
  
head(sims.full3)
  
sims.slimmed3 <- qi_slimmer(sims.full3)
  
ggplot(sims.slimmed3, aes(st_q08, qi_ci_median)) +
    geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = qi_ci_min, ymax = qi_ci_max), alpha = 0.3) +
    geom_line() + 
    ylab('Expected trust') +
    theme_bw() + 
    labs(title = "Medien generell", x="Politische Einstellung", y="Expected Trust")
```